Me pēhea te hanga i tētahi tūāpapa mākete matapae pērā i a Kalshi

Ko te uara $10 piriona a Kalshi e whakaatu ana kāore ngā mākete matapae e waiho hei whakamātautau; kei te huri haere rātou ngā mākete mōhiohio ā-motuhakeI te marama kua taha ake nei, i eke te nui o ngā hokohoko o ēnei tūāpapa hokohoko kirimana huihuinga ki te taumata teitei rawa atu o te $2 piriona. Ko te pikinga o Kalshi e whakaatu ana i ngā mea ka taea ina ōrite te ture, te hoahoanga, me te moni whiwhi.

Ka whakamāramahia e tēnei tuhinga ngā mea tino nui mēnā kei te hiahia koe ki te hanga i tētahi mākete matapae pērā i a Kalshi – ko wai ka taea te hanga, te hoahoa matua, ngā wāhanga matua, te whiwhi moni, ngā painga, me ētahi atu.

He aha ngā Mākete Matapae rite ki a Kalshi e toa ai?

Ka tupu pai ngā mākete matapae ina tukinga ngā mana e toru: te piki me te heke, te koretake, me te whakawhirinaki. 

I te tau 2025 anake, i eke te nui o ngā hokohoko mākete matapae o te ao ki te $44 piriona puta noa i ngā papaaho nui, ā, i piki ake te nui o ngā kirimana e aro ana ki te ōhanga tata ki te 905% YoY ki te $112 miriona.

Ko te take i muri i tēnei pikinga ake, he tere ake te pikinga o ēnei mākete hokohoko moni matihiko e hangai ana ki ngā huihuinga i te nuinga o ngā mākete tūnga, ngā mākete whakawhiti rānei. Kāore e hiahiatia ana e ngā kaihokohoko te mārama ki te huanga pumau, ngā reiti pūtea, te pāngarau tawhē rānei. Ka taea e rātou te haumi noa i tā rātou $10 ka peti ki runga i te "Ka mate a Steve Harrington i te Stranger Things Season 5?" ka whiwhi $53 mō te "Āe" me te $12 mō te "Kāo".

Kei te whakamahi ēnei tūāpapa Matapae, pērā i a Kalshi, i te māmā noa iho, ā, kei te hanga i te hokohoko kirimana huihuinga hei pakihi whakahaere, taumata-pūtahi. Ko ngā huihuinga mai i ngā pōtitanga me ngā tānga pikinga utu ki ngā hua o te āhuarangi me ngā hua taonga ka waiho ēnei tūāpapa hei wāhi wera mō ngā kaihokohoko moni matihiko kore-hangarau. 

Mō Kalshi i pakaru ngā rekoata me te hopu tere i te hea mākete, ehara i te UX, i ngā whakatenatena tohu rānei te mea nui i rerekē ai engari ko te mana ture. Hanganga e whakahaeretia ana e te CFTC i āhei ai ngā umanga me ngā kaihokohoko hokohoko ki te hokohoko kirimana rua me te kore he rangirua ture. He mea tēnei kāore i taea e te nuinga o ngā tūāpapa crypto-native te tuku.

Ko te mākete matapae, e matapaetia ana ka eke ki te tiriona i te mutunga o tēnei tekau tau, e kore e memeha haere engari ka uru atu ki ngā umanga me ngā whakawhitinga moni. Ko ngā papaaho hangarau pūtea e whakauru ana i ngā mākete matapae (hei tauira, Robinhood) e matapaetia ana ka eke ki te 78% te tipu whiwhinga moni ā-tau. 

Ko wai hei hanga i tētahi mākete matapae ā-Kalshi?

Ehara te tauira mākete mōhiohio ā-Kalshi i te mea mā te katoa. Engari mā ngā kaiwhakahaere tika, he whakarea rahinga me te moni whiwhi. Mena kua whakahaere kē koe i ngā kaiwhakamahi, i te moni whiwhi, i ngā rerengamahi hokohoko kua whakaritea rānei, ka uru pai ngā mākete matapae ki roto i tō puranga.

Te Hanganga Matua o tētahi Tūāpapa Mākete Matapae

Koinei te wāhi e hē ai te nuinga o ngā papaaho. Ka nui rawa atu tā rātou hanga i te arorau petipeti kia matatau ake, ka tārua rānei i te arorau petipeti.

1. Mīhini Mākete

I tōna pūtake, me whai te tūāpapa mākete matapae i ēnei:

• Te whakahaere i te huringa ora o te huihuinga: waihanga → hokohoko → whakatau → whakatau
• Ngā kirimana rua me ngā kirimana maha-putanga
• Te utu tūponotanga kua whakaarohia: Ko te utu mō ngā peti Āe/Kāo e ai ki te whakapono o te mākete
• Ngā matapihi whakataunga: Ko te 1–90 ngā rā te wāhi pai rawa atu

Mai i Hānuere ki Oketopa 2025, neke atu i te $27.9 piriona te nui o te hokohoko i tukatukahia e ngā papaaho matapae nui. I te marama o Hepetema, nā Kalshi, nā tana kua piki ake te hanganga kua whakaritea, ngā horapa kikī, me te whakataunga tere ake, neke atu i te 60% o te mākete matapae o te ao rōrahi.

2. Pukapuka Ota vs AMM

E pai ana ngā umanga ki ngā CLOB nā te mea e tuku ana rātou te whakahaere i ngā utu, te whai i ngā ture, me te māramatanga o ngā tureHe uaua ki ngā AMM ēnei mea e toru i roto i ngā mākete e peia ana e ngā huihuinga.

• Te whakaiti i te horapa o te tukino:
  Ko ngā utu i roto i te CLOB ka whakatakotoria e ngā kaiuru whakataetae, ehara i te tauira. Mā ngā tono me ngā tono e kitea ana ka akiaki i ngā kaihanga mākete ki te whakawhāiti i ngā horapa, engari ka kitea tonutia ngā hokohoko nui, ngā hokohoko tinihanga rānei. Mā tēnei ka whakawhāiti i te paheke me te hē o te utu i te meneti whakamutunga tata ki te whakataunga o te kaupapa.
• Te kaha ake o te arotake:
  Ka tuhia mārama ia ota, ia taurite, me ia whakakorenga me te utu, te rahi, me te tohu wā. Ka taea e ngā kaiwhakahaere te hanga anō i te hītori hokohoko katoa me te kore e whakamārama i ngā pihi moni, i te pāngarau kirimana rānei, ka taea ai te arotake i te whakatinanatanga pai rawa atu me te tika o te mākete.
• Te whakaae ture:
  E whakaatu ana ngā CLOB i te kitenga utu koretake, te urunga ōrite ki te mākete, me te kore "tūponotanga kua whakaritea e te whare." He rite tonu tēnei hanganga ki te tirotiro ā-CFTC, te tirotiro mākete, me ngā whakaritenga ārai-whakahaere.

Nā tēnei take, ko ngā AMM anake ka whakamahia hei whakaara i te moni whiwhi, ko ngā CLOB ia ka noho hei poutokomanawa mō te whakatinanatanga ina piki haere ngā mākete. Nā tēnei nekehanga AMM-ki-CLOB i akiaki te tipu o Polymarket i te 400% i ia tau.

Kia mōhio: Ka whakahaerehia te tirotiro mākete i te wā kotahi me te hokohoko, ā, ka aroturukihia hoki te raweketanga, ngā tauira ota rerekē, me te wawaotanga o roto. Ina pūrongohia tētahi o ēnei mahi, ka whakahoutia te pūnaha Oracle. Ka whāngaihia hoki e te miihini whakataunga te pono ki ngā pūnaha oracle kia mau tonu ai te whakahoutanga.

Ngā Wāhanga Matua o ngā Mākete Matapae

1. Tauira Whakahaere

Kāore ngā mākete matapae e hinga nā te hangarau. Ka hinga nā te mea ko ngā kaiwhakahaere te hunga e whakatau ana ko tēhea te ingoa e whakaaetia ana mō rātou. Te wikitoria ture a Kalshi i te tau 2024 i raro i te CFTC i whakarerekē i ngā mea katoa. I whakamātauhia e ia:

• Ehara ngā mākete matapae i te petipeti.
• Kei raro i te mana whakahaere o te Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) ngā kirimana huihuinga.

Nā te whakataunga i wetekina te whai wāhitanga a ngā umanga, ā, ka taea e ngā pūtea ārai, ngā umanga, me ngā kaihokohoko whakahaere te hokohoko mō ngā tūponotanga huihuinga me te kore he mahi ture. I whakaatuhia hoki e ia ka taea e ngā rerenga mahi whakaae tika te wetekina i ngā rahinga nui. Kāore i rite ki ngā takirua tohu crypto, me whai rerenga mahi whakaae-mua ngā mākete matapae:

• Me tika te whakamāramatanga o te kaupapa, me ine, ā, me kore e ruarua.
• Me whakaatu te pūtake o te whakataunga i mua i te tīmatanga o te hokohoko.
• Me tuhi ngā taupatupatu pānga, ā, me whakaiti hoki.

Koia te take e pai ake ai ngā umanga ki ngā komiti whakarārangi pokapū i ngā whakarewatanga kore whakaaetanga. Ka whakaitihia te mōrearea o te pane me te raruraru a ngā kaiwhakahaere.

2. Ngā Pūnaha Pono me te Whakawhirinakitanga o te Mākete

Mena ka ruarua ngā kaihokohoko i te whakataunga mō ngā mākete matapae, ka ngaro tonu te moni whiwhi.

• Te Hanganga Oracle: Ka whakawhirinaki ngā mākete matapae taumata-hinonga ki:

• • He maha ngā pūtake raraunga motuhake
  • Arorau whakatau whakatau
  • Ngā hua ka taea te arotake i te marea

I whakatauhia e Kalshi te 99%+ o ngā mākete me te kore tautohe i te tau 2025, nā te mea i herea ngā hua ki ngā whāngai raraunga kāwanatanga me ngā umanga ka taea te manatoko.

• Ngā Mana Tirotiro me te Whakahaere Raruraru: He tino pāngia ngā mākete matapae e te tinihanga i te wā e tata ana ki te paunga. Nō reira, ka whakatinanahia e ngā papaaho matapae whai hua:

• • Te aroturuki i te tere o te hokohoko
  • Ngā paepae mōrearea kukū
  • Te kimi hokohoko o roto

Mā te ngoikore o ngā mana whakahaere pono ka whānui ake ngā horapa i te tau 2030%, ka mate ai te whai huatanga o te mākete. Koia te take he hanganga te whakawhirinaki, ehara i te tuhinga kaupapa here.

3. Rautaki Putea 

Ka mate puku te nuinga o ngā mākete matapae nā te mea kāore tetahi i whakamahere i te moni whiwhi. Koinei te mea i whakaaturia mai e te tau 2025 ki a tātou:

• 70% o ngā mākete hou i rahua kāore he pūtea purapura
• I kite ngā papaaho i whakauru mai i ngā kaihanga mākete ngaio 4× te whai wāhi

Ka taea e te hunga e whakamahere ana ki te hanga i tētahi mākete matapae pērā i a Kalshi te awhi i ngā tauira whakatō moni e whai ake nei

• Ngā kaihanga mākete kua tohua me ngā herenga horapa
• Ngā whakahokinga moni e hangai ana ki te rōrahi kua whakaaetia e ngā kaiwhakahaere
• Ngā puna pūtea whakawhiti-mākete mō ngā kaiwhakahaere whakawhiti moni

Ngā whakawhitiwhitinga e whakauru ana i ngā mākete matapae whakaitihia ngā reiti rahunga mā te 50 orau mā te whakamahi anō i ngā ara moni kua whakamahia.

4. Te Urunga a te Kaiwhakamahi me te Wheako Tauhokohoko

Ka angitu ngā mākete matapae ina mārama ngā kaiwhakamahi ki ngā putanga i mua i te hokohoko.

• Te Whakauru me ngā Whakaaetanga: Ka whakamahia e ngā tūāpapa matapae kāhua Kalshi te urunga taumata:

• • Ngā kaiwhakamahi hokohoko: te whakaaturanga kua whakawhāitihia, te atanga kaiwhakamahi kua whakangawaritia
  • Ngā kaiwhakamahi ngaio: ngā rohe teitei ake, te urunga API
  • Ngā umanga: te tuku pūrongo, ngā taputapu whakatutuki ture

Nā tēnei hanganga i taea ai e te miriona tāngata te whakamahi ia wiki me te iti rawa o ngā raruraru ture.

• UX e Tahuri Ana me te Kore e Māmingatia: Ko te utu tūponotanga mārama ("Āe i te 62¢") i pai ake i ngā whakaaturanga momo tūponotanga, ā, i hua ake he pikinga 90%+ o ngā tahuritanga i muri i te whakaaturanga.

Ngā Tauira Whakawhiwhi Moni mō te Hunga e Hanga Ana i ngā Mākete Matapae Pērā i a Kalshi

He aha ngā hua o te whakauru i ngā mākete matapae ki roto i ngā tūāpapa o nāianei?

1. Mō ngā Whakawhitiwhiti Moni Kino

• Ngā pēke moni tiritahi me te pupuri
• Te KYC o nāianei me te tirotiro
• Te whakaara anō i te moni whiwhi tonu

Ngā whakawhitiwhiti ranu i pūrongohia 400% te hiki i te rōrahi whai muri i te tāpiri i ngā mākete huihuinga.

2. Mō ngā Kaihokohoko me ngā Pūtea Hangarau

Nā te whakaurunga matapae a Robinhood i karo te tāruarua o ngā hanganga, ā, i ārahi hoki Te tipu o ngā whiwhinga moni 78%, e whakaatu ana i te uru pai o ngā mākete matapae ki ngā rerenga haumitanga hokohoko.

3. Ētahi atu Painga

• He māramatanga ture kei reira.
• He tino ngenge te hunga whakamahi i ngā taputapu whakawhiti moni, ā, mā ēnei tūāpapa ka āwhina i a koe ki te karo i tēnā.
• Ka taurite te ārai kaupapa-ā-takahanga ki a TradFi me te moni matihiko, ā, ka kukume mai i te hunga whakarongo whānui.
• I piki ake ngā rahinga o ia marama mai i $100M (2024) Tuhinga o mua $13B+ (2025)

Me pēhea te āwhina a Antier ki te hanga i ngā mākete matapae taumata-hinonga

I whakamātau a Kalshi ka taea e ngā mākete matapae te tauine ma, te whai i ngā whakaritenga, me te whai hua. Ka mahi te tauira. Ko te mea nui inaianei ko te whakatinanatanga.

Ka hangaia e Antier ngā tūāpapa mākete matapae me:

• Ngā hoahoanga e hangai ana ki te CLOB
• Ngā rerengamahi e aro nui ana ki te tutuki i ngā whakaritenga
• Te tere me te hoahoa mākete
• Ngā whakatinanatanga tapanga-mā me ngā whakaritenga ritenga

Ko ngā turanga anō i kawe i a Kalshi mai i te kore ki te $11B te uara ka taea inaianei. Ahakoa kei te whakamahere koe ki te hanga i tētahi kaupapa matua pūhara matapae ā-mua, he mākete matapae rite ki a Kalshi, he kōwae hokohoko mōhiohio rānei hei whakauru atu ki tō whakawhitinga, ka tukuna e Antier he hoahoanga, he ratonga ture, me te whakarewatanga o te mōhiohio. Me tīmata tō kōrero angitu ki a Antier i tēnei rā.